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MLB 1st Rd Draft Pick Analysis - Part 4

by Steve Garrity on Jun. 5, 2011

The draft is only a day away. As always, rumors are piling in and stocks are rising and falling constantly.

The question of who will go number one overall seems to have been answered as all reports for Pittsburgh say Cole will be the pick. However that doesn't mean there aren't any more surprises in the first round. Below is Draftsite's fourth attempt at the first round pick by pick analysis complete with all rumors and going ons.

 

1) Pittsburgh Pirates - Gerrit Cole RHP, UCLA

Previous Pick: Gerrit Cole

-Everything now leads to the Pirates selecting Cole with the first overall Pick.

 

2) Seattle Mariners - Anthony Rendon 3B, Rice

Previous Pick: Anthony Rendon

- The Mariners have been connected to Rendon for a while. Lindor and Starling's names have also been mentioned here but it sounds like Seattle is leaning towards a college bat.

 

3) Arizona Diamondbacks - Danny Hultzen LHP, Virginia

Previous Pick: Danny Hultzen

Hultzen is no longer a slam dunk here with reports of a $13 million dollar price tag, hence Bauer's name has been mentioned here. However, the D-Backs have been on him for a while, so if he's here, he has a good chance at being selected.

 

4) Baltimore Orioles - Dylan Bundy RHP, Owasso HS (OK)

Previous Pick: Dylan Bundy

-Baltimore has been connected to Bundy for a while, but Bauer's name has surfaced here also. Yet with the brotherly connection to Bundy and the Orioles willingness to spend, it would make sense to assume he is the pick here.

 

5) Kansas City Royals - Trevor Bauer RHP, UCLA

Previous Pick: Trevor Bauer

- It could be tough for Kansas City to pass up hometown product Bubba Starling but they have been connected to college pitching and Bauer is the best arm left.

 

6) Washington Nationals - Bubba Starling OF/P, Gardener HS (KS)y

Previous Pick: Alex Meyer

- The Nationals have locked on to Starling and if he makes it past Seattle and Kansas City he will be the pick here.

 

7) Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation for failure to sign Barret Loux) - Francisco Lindor SS, Montverde Academy (FL)

Previous Pick: Francisco Lindor

- Arizona has mentioned that signability will not be as big a factor as talent here. Lindor has put himself into the top five mix and is a legitimate shortstop prospect. If he is here it will be tough to pass him over.

 

8) Cleveland Indians -Sonny Gray RHP, Vanderbilt

Previous Pick: Matt Barnes

-The Indians seem to be connected to Gray at the moment. Tough to argue with this pick. Gray has a solid fastball with late life and college baseball's best curve.

 

 

9) Chicago Cubs - Archie Bradley RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK)

Previous Pick: Bubba Starling

-Starling was their target and with him off the board it is tough to say which way the Cubs would now go. Bradley has had a high price tag associated with him but Chicago is never afraid of taking whoever they think is the best player. Right now Bradley is the best prep arm left, already touching 100 mph.

 

10) San Diego Padres (Compensation for failure to sign Karsten Whitson) - Cory Spangenberg 2B/3B - Indian River State College

Previous Pick: Sonny Gray

- The Pads have been connected to Spangenberg for a while. They could take the chance and pass him over here and hope he slides to them at 25. However that is unlikely to happen. He's had a monster season and shouldn't be a difficult sign.

 

11) Houston Astros - Chris Reed LHP, Stanford

Previous Pick: George Springer

-The hot rumor is the Astros are working on a pre-draft deal to select Reed here. He would be an extremely safe pick, along with an extreme overdraft. Houston has denied it but the rumor persists and it just seems to be something the Astros would do.

 

12) Milwaukee Brewers - Taylor Guerreri RHP, North Augusta HS (SC)

Previous Pick: Taylor Guerreri

- Bats seem to be on the top of the Brewers wish list here. But they have been linked to Guerreri for a while and there is a chance he doesn't make it to them at 15.

 

13) New York Mets - Taylor Jungmann RHP, Texas

Previous Pick: Jed Bradley

-Jungmann's stock is on the rise and if the Reed to Houston rumors prove to be false, he most likely is gone at this point. Shouldn't be too difficult a sign for the cash-strapped Mets and could be a real steal.

 

14) Florida Marlins - George Springer OF, UConn

Previous Pick: Daniel Norris

- Tough to predict what the Marlins will do here at 14. They have not really been connected to any one player and nothing seems to be coming out of their camp. They usually lean towards high schoolers but if Springer, a 5-tool potential player, is here, he could be tough to pass up.

 

15) Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for failure to sign Dylan Covey) - Mikie Mahtook OF, LSU

Previous Pick: Mikie Mahtook

- The Brewers grabbed an arm at 12 in Guerreri. Mahtook, Spangenberg, Larry Greene have been mentioned in this spot. Javier Baez is new to the mix, but Mahtook should be an easier sign and has 5-tool potential.

 

16) Los Angeles Dodgers - Robert Stephenson RHP, Alhambra HS (CA)

Previous Pick: CJ Cron

- The Dodgers have no money and can not go over for whoever they draft. The new rumor has them connected to Robert Stephenson here, so hope he doesn't mind signing for slot.

 

17) Los Angeles Angels - Daniel Norris LHP, Science Hill HS (TN)

Previous Pick: Jose Fernandez

- The Angels have been mentioned with arms leading up to the draft. Norris is the best lefty prep arm in the class, if he makes it here, it would be tough to pass him over.

 

18) Oakland Athletics - Jed Bradley LHP, Georgia Tech

Previous Pick: Taylor Jungmann

-Bradley making it to 18 would be surprising but there could be some surprises along the way that make it happen. The A's would love to have a shot at him here.

 

19) Boston Red Sox - Brandon Nimmo OF, East HS (WY)

Previous Pick: Archie Bradley

- The Red Sox have said they are going to take advantage of this draft because they do not know how the draft could be restructured under the new CBA. Nimmo has a $3 million dollar price tag attached to him. Boston really likes him and could come close to matching that price.

 

20) Colorado Rockies - CJ Cron 1B, Utah

Previous Pick: Kolten Wong

- The Rockies seem to be going after college bats. They were attached to Kolten Wong for a while and now the rumor is they will take CJ Cron here if he is available.

 

21) Toronto Blue Jays - Javier Baez SS, Arlington County HS (FL)

Previous Pick: Javier Baez

- It has been mentioned the Blue Jays will be looking for upside here. Baez is best prep position player that fits into the Jays price tag.

 

22) St. Louis Cardinals - Matt Barnes RHP, UConn

Previous Pick: Cory Spangenberg

- Barnes stock has fallen some. However it could be a shock to see him here, but if it happens, the Cards will most likely pounce.

 

23) Washington Nationals  - Alex Meyer RHP, Kentucky

Previous Pick: Brian Goodwin

- The Nationals were connected to him with the sixth pick before Starling became the main target. If they can get another shot at their guy here they would be elated.

 

24) Tampa Bay Rays - Henry Owens LHP, Edison HS (CA)

Previous Pick: Larry Greene

- The Rays have so many picks that they can go with any strategy that they think will help maximize the value of each pick. They have been connected to prep arms here. Owens is a big (6'5''), projectable lefty with a potential plus curve. Should get them started off right.

 

25) San Diego Padres - Jose Fernandez RHP, Alonso HS (FL)

Previous Pick: Henry Owens

- The Padres got their man at number 10 in Cory Spangeberg. Grabbing a top arm in Jose Fernandez, who could potentially go in the teens here, would be a real steal. He also shouldn't be too difficult a sign.

 

26) Boston Red Sox - Blake Swihart C, Cleveland HS (NM)

Previous Pick: Josh Osich

- The Red Sox have been looking hard at high school catching in this draft. Swihart is another potential tough sign but Boston has always been in on top talent that falls and could be the team that makes Swihart reconsider not signing.

 

27) Cincinnati Reds - Sean Gilmartin LHP, Florida State

Previous Pick: Andrew Chafin

-The Reds have been all over pitching with this pick from John Stilson to Andrew Chafin. Gilmartin seems to be the pick right now.

 

28) Atlanta Braves - Joe Ross RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (CA)

Previous Pick: Brandon Nimmo

- The Braves are looking for one of the top prep arms that fall to them. Dillon Howard could be an option here but he is said to be a tough sign. Ross is the pick here.

 

29) San Francisco Giants  - Levi Michael SS, UNC

Previous Pick: Robert Stephenson

- The Giants were connected to Robert Stephen (Plan A) and Joe Ross (Plan B). Both are off the board here. However Levi Michael wouldn't be a bad plan C. One of top college bats in the draft; probably switches to second in the pros but has a shot to stick at short.

 

30) Minnesota Twins - Josh Osich LHP, Oregon State

Previous Pick: Tyler Anderson

- The Twins said they are going to go after pitching early. Not too shocking, since it is usually their strategy. Osich has bounced back nicely from Tommy-John surgery this year, even tossing a no-hitter. Fits Minnesota's mold perfectly and should be relatively easy to sign.

 

31) Tampa Bay Rays - Brian Goodwin OF, Miami-Dade JC

Previous Pick: Andrew Susac

-The Rays love toolsy athletes in the draft. Goodwin has 5-tool potential and the Rays have liked him for a while.

 

32) Tampa Bay Rays - Daniel Voglebach 1B, Bishop Verot HS (FL)

Previous Pick: Joe Ross

The Rays are going to have reach at some point with all their picks. They can't afford to spend everything early. Voglebach has been mentioned as a surprise first pick for the Rays; Someone who should be very signable and actually gives Tampa a real power prospect in their system.

 

33) Texas Rangers - Derek Fisher OF, Cedar Crest HS (PA)

Previous Pick: Kyle Crick

- Texas has said signability won't interfere too heavily with who they pick here. Fisher has a solid commitment to Virginia and a price tag in the $2.25 million range. The Rangers have never shied from paying and Fisher fits their philosophy well.

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