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MLB 1st Rd Draft Pick Analysis- Part 5

by Steve Garrity on Jun. 6, 2011

It's draft day. Reports are out that some teams have settled on their main targets, while others are too difficult to predict.

Below is Draftsite's fifth attempt at the first round mock draft pick by pick analysis (although we might still make some changes before the 7:00 start). Check it out below with recent reports and rumors:

 

1) Pittsburgh Pirates - Gerrit Cole RHP, UCLA

Previous Pick: Gerrit Cole

- Neil Huntington says the Pirates decision will be made about two minutes before the draft. But everything now leads to the Pirates selecting Cole with the first overall Pick.

 

2) Seattle Mariners - Francisco Lindor SS, Montverde Academy (FL)

Previous Pick: Anthony Rendon

- It has been reported that Lindor will be the pick here.

UPDATE - Barring a change of heart it is looking like Rendon is back to be the Mariners main target. 

 

3) Arizona Diamondbacks - Trevor Bauer RHP, UCLA

Previous Pick: Danny Hultzen

With Cole and Lindor apparently locked in, Bauer seems to be the pick here.

 

4) Baltimore Orioles - Anthony Rendon 3B, Rice

Previous Pick: Dylan Bundy

-If Rendon makes it to number 4 it would tough for them to pass him up. However Bundy is not completely out of it still. Archie Bradley's name has also been tossed into the mix here. 

UPDATE - Archie Bradley here is gaining momentum.

 

5) Kansas City Royals - Danny Hultzen LHP, Virginia

Previous Pick: Trevor Bauer

- The Royals have been connected to college pitching pretty much the whole way. Hultzen has been called the most polished pitcher in the draft, so it would seem likely that they hop all over him here at 5.

UPDATE - The Royals may be leaning towards one of the top Prep arms.

 

6) Washington Nationals - Bubba Starling OF/P, Gardener HS (KS)y

Previous Pick: Bubba Starling

- The Nationals have locked on to Starling and if he makes it past Seattle and Kansas City he will be the pick here.

 

7) Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation for failure to sign Barret Loux) - Dylan Bundy RHP, Owasso HS (OK)

Previous Pick: Francisco Lindor

- Lindor has been connected here for a while, but with him off the board Bundy has to be the pick. The D-backs have said all along that talent with reign supreme over signability here.

 

8) Cleveland Indians -Sonny Gray RHP, Vanderbilt

Previous Pick: Matt Barnes

-The Indians seem to be connected to Gray at the moment. Tough to argue with this pick. Gray has a solid fastball with late life and college baseball's best curve.

 

9) Chicago Cubs - Archie Bradley RHP, Broken Arrow HS (OK)

Previous Pick: Archie Bradley

-Starling was their target and with him off the board it is tough to say which way the Cubs would now go. Bradley has had a high price tag associated with him but Chicago is never afraid of taking whoever they think is the best player. Right now Bradley is the best prep arm left, already touching 100 mph.

 

10) San Diego Padres (Compensation for failure to sign Karsten Whitson) - George Springer OF, UConn

Previous Pick: Cory Spangenberg

- The Padres were connected to Spangenberg but it appears Springer has hopped in front of him on their list. No way he makes it to 25, so he could be the pick here. Look for Matt Barnes to also be in consideration.

 

11) Houston Astros - Taylor Jungmann RHP, Texas

Previous Pick: Chris Reed

-The Chris Reed rumor has died down completely, but he still could be the pick here. Jungmann's velocity has dropped recently causing a minor stir but it shouldn't affect his stock much. If he is still around here fans would be all over the Astros if they pass him over.

 

12) Milwaukee Brewers - Javier Baez SS, Arlington County HS (FL)

Previous Pick: Taylor Guerreri

- The Brewers seem to really like Baez here. Guerreri is still in the mix, as well as Jungmann if he makes it here, but Baez's stock is on the rise.

 

13) New York Mets - Jed Bradley LHP, Georgia Tech

Previous Pick: Taylor Jungmann

-The Mets claim they can go over slot to sign players. How true that is who knows, since they are still in a $1 billion lawsuit and apparently look to lose about $70 million this season. So likely look for them to not be able to go over slot. They have been connected to a college arm here, so either Bradley or Barnes makes sense here.

 

14) Florida Marlins - Mikie Mahtook OF, LSU

Previous Pick: George Springer

- The Marlins are connected to Mahtook, a former draft pick of theirs in the 39th round of the 2008 draft. If he is still on the board, he will likely be the pick.

 

15) Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for failure to sign Dylan Covey) - Matt Barnes RHP, UConn

Previous Pick: Mikie Mahtook

- The Brewers could go in a few different directions here. Mahtook has most recently been connected here but with him off the board, Barnes is the best college arm left and shouldn't be too difficult to sign.

 

16) Los Angeles Dodgers - Robert Stephenson RHP, Alhambra HS (CA)

Previous Pick: Robert Stephenson

- The Dodgers have no money and can not go over for whoever they draft. The new rumor has them connected to Robert Stephenson here, so hope he doesn't mind signing for slot.

 

17) Los Angeles Angels - Taylor Guerreri RHP, North Augusta HS (SC)

Previous Pick: Daniel Norris

- The Angels have been mentioned with arms leading up to the draft. Guerreri's stock has fallen some due to make-up concerns, but his talent could be too tough to pass up here, ala Kyle Drabek in 2006.

 

18) Oakland Athletics - CJ Cron 1B, Utah

Previous Pick: Jed Bradley

-The A's are rumored to be looking for a college bat here. Anyone from Spangenberg, Wong, and Michael would be a good fit here. Cron makes some of the most consistent contact in the draft and is a real power bat. A perfect fit for the A's.

 

19) Boston Red Sox - Alex Meyer RHP, Kentucky

Previous Pick: Brandon Nimmo

- The Sox are rumored to be willing to open their wallet in this draft. But the Sox usually spend on talent that falls. Grabbing someone that they formerly drafted, such as Meyer  who was drafted in the 20th round in the 2008 draft, makes sense. They can then wait on high priced talent with picks 26, 36, and 40.

 

20) Colorado Rockies - Kolten Wong 2B, Hawaii

Previous Pick: CJ Cron

- The Rockies had been connected to Wong for a while. Most recently Cron was the target but with him off the board, grabbing a plan B isn't so bad here. Wong is one of the top college bats in a draft that is slightly lacking in that area.

UPDATE - Reports suggest the Rockies are deciding between Wong and Levi Michael. 

 

21) Toronto Blue Jays - Andrew Chafin LHP, Kent State

Previous Pick: Javier Baez

- The Jays are rumored to be looking at Chafin with this pick.

 

22) St. Louis Cardinals - Henry Owens LHP, Edison HS (CA)

Previous Pick: Matt Barnes

- The Cardinals are said to really love Owens here. A big, projectable lefty with a potential plus curve. Not much to argue with.

 

23) Washington Nationals  - Tyler Anderson LHP, Oregon

Previous Pick: Alex Meyer

- Meyer has been one of their main targets leading up to the draft. With him off the board, a polished left like Anderson makes sense. His stock has risen slightly after defeating Jungmann and Texas recently.

 

24) Tampa Bay Rays - Jose Fernandez RHP, Alonso HS (FL)

Previous Pick: Henry Owens

- The Rays seem to be connected with a prep arm here. Fernandez is a local product who shouldn't be too difficult to sign. It will get their draft started off right.

 

25) San Diego Padres - Cory Spangenberg 2B - Indian River State CollegeFL)

Previous Pick: Jose Fernandez

- They have been in on Spangenberg for a while, so if he makes it here, he should be in contention. After grabbing Springer at 10, an arm would also make sense.

 

26) Boston Red Sox - Brandon Nimmo OF, East HS (WY))

Previous Pick: Blake Swihart

- The Red Sox have said they are going to take advantage of this draft because they do not know how the draft could be restructured under the new CBA. Nimmo has a $3 million price tag attached to him. Boston really likes him and could come close to matching that price.

 

27) Cincinnati Reds - Sean Gilmartin LHP, Florida State

Previous Pick: Sean Gilmartin

-The Reds have been all over pitching with this pick from John Stilson to Andrew Chafin. Recently they have been all over the ACC tourney and Gilmartin seems to be the pick right now.

 

28) Atlanta Braves - Joe Ross RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (CA)

Previous Pick: Joe Ross

- The Braves are looking for one of the top prep arms that fall to them. Dillon Howard could be an option here but he is said to be a tough sign. Ross is the pick here.

 

29) San Francisco Giants  - Andrew Susac C, Oregon State

Previous Pick: Levi Michael

- With Boster Posey's season ending injury, the Giants are rumored to be in on catching in this draft. Susac is the best college catcher offering both defense and offense.

 

30) Minnesota Twins - Josh Osich LHP, Oregon State

Previous Pick: Josh Osich

- The Twins said they are going to go after pitching early. Not too shocking, since it is usually their strategy. Osich has bounced back nicely from Tommy-John surgery this year, even tossing a no-hitter. Fits Minnesota's mold perfectly and should be relatively easy to sign.

 

31) Tampa Bay Rays - Levi Michael SS, UNC

Previous Pick: Brian Goodwin

-Tampa is pretty difficult to nail down in the draft due to their large amount of picks that they have. But if Michael is still on the board here, no way the Rays pass him up.

 

32) Tampa Bay Rays - Daniel Vogelbach 1B, Bishop Verot HS (FL)

Previous Pick: Daniel Vogelbach

The Rays are going to have to reach at some point with all their picks. They can't afford to spend everything early. Voglebach has been mentioned as a surprise first pick for the Rays; Someone who should be very signable and actually gives Tampa a real power prospect in their system.

 

33) Texas Rangers - Daniel Norris LHP, Science Hill HS (TN)

Previous Pick: Derek Fisher

- Norris making it here would be pretty surprising. However he sent a letter to teams requesting $3.9 million to sign, so some teams could be scared off. The Rangers have said signability will not be a huge concern to them here. If Norris is still on the board, he will be the pick.