Justin Herbert

Height / Weight
6' 6" / 225 lbs
Born
March 10th 1998 (26)
Position
Quarterback
Country
United States
School
University of Oregon
NFL 2020 mock draft
Draft Type Round Pick Team
Projection 1 6
SCOUTING REPORT

Pros:

1. Mobility:

You don't truly know the speed Herbert possess, till you actually watch him play. And oh boy is he quick. When he decides to tuck it and run, he's hard to catch. A game where his mobility is put on full display was in Oregons bowl game this past season against Wisconsin. The only touchdowns scored for Oregons offense came off the feet of Herbert. The best part of his mobility to me is he chooses when to use it so well. Herbert being so mobile you'd think he'd tuck it in run more than he does, but he really goes through his options as a passer first and when he sees a whole, and no better option he takes off. In todays game its becomes more and more of a necessity for your quarterback to be mobile, and Herbert will satisfy that need very well. 

2. Pocket Pressence:

Watching Herbert in the pocket is like art. His footwork, watching him go through all the options he has on the field. You can tell Herbert likes to keep his body centered toward where he is going to throw the ball, because you see him center right after the snap. He's best when he gets to stay in the pocket and when he's given time he makes beautiful reads. Nice solid hard throws up the seam for positive gains for the Ducks. A big part of Herberts game is that he is the most comfortable when he's able to keep his body centered and step into his throws he's usually successful and accurate. 

3. Short to Medium Accuracy:

Oregon offense is built on the foundation of the smalls gains for big rewards. Watching Herbert you'll see a lot of throws up the seam, and screen passes to gain first down and sometimes more. Herbert thrived in that role. His short to medium level passes are very accurate and uses his power to hit targets hard and fast in small holes. The throws i was the most impressed with would be when he's able to deliver pretty balls under pressure consistently up the seam for 15 yards and let his receivers do the rest. The game that i feel his strengths were best put on display was against Washington this past season. Herbert ended the day 24 of 38 for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. Herbert had so many nice balls that day, and a good amount while absorbing a hit, or at the very least under duress. He didn't have a huge deep touchdown in this one either, his longest pass on the day was only 36 yards for that matter. Herbert is able to deal damage without the big plays, and in the NFL defenses try to take away those anyway, for that reason i feel like he can have success at the next level.

4. Arm Strength:  

Herbert's arm strength isn't put on display the same way we normally see it in the NFL. Herbert uses his arm strength to increase his accuracy. He doesn't go down field much whether by his own choice, or the Oregon offense. He shows his strength by sending balls with power into small holes. It's beautiful to watch, and it makes his throws look so crisp and NFL ready. It also gives you hope that under the right offense in the NFL he may be able to learn to have a consistent deep ball using the same power. Adding that aspect of his game would only help him, defensive backs having to worry about those type of throws will open up more of the middle of the field where Herbert likes to move the chains.

Cons:

1. Out of Pocket Play:

As a scout, and even a fan when i scout quarterbacks one of the first things i look for is how a quarterback responds when his pocket collapses and he has to roll out. Herbert isn't as comfortable out of the pocket as you'd like. I think a huge reason for this is his need to center his body on throws. When he rolls out he will attempt and stop and go through his normal progressions and at times thats just not possible when you roll out. You have to rush your progressions to find the open target without the defense knowing where the ball is heading, let alone the pass rushers that is licking their lips at the chance of getting the sack. Herbert's decision making out of the pocket is significantly worse than when he is in his comfort zone in the pocket. This is an area that unless Herbert is drafted to one of the few teams who's interior line is already solid he will have to improve. The pocket collapsing is a sad reality for most quarterbacks and its not a trait that becomes easier to learn with time.

2. Jumps the Gun on Check downs:

This con is one that made scouting Herbert at times lackluster. He is very quick to toss down to the running back or slot receiver. Watching him, there are times that he jumps the gun and fires to the check down because either his first option is taken away or he's nervous the pocket might collapse. This is a problem we've seen quarterbacks in the NFL have recently that have become problematic for teams. Another Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota comes to mind as one, another being Jacoby Brissett. When you're too quick to go to the check down you miss out of so many big play opportunities and it at times can kill drives and leave points on the field. Now there is a chance that this con isn't as much a Herbert thing, and more on the Oregon program as as whole. To me personally we just didn't see Herbert go down field anywhere near enough to show me that he is willing to take the risks at times needed to win games. Now Herbert will flourish in the new NFL of pass catching running backs and at giving speedy receivers the ball in great position to do more with it after the catch. The question you have to ask yourself before drafting him, is if defenses take away the backs and the slot from him can he still win you the game? Only time will tell!

3. Killer Drive

Your team is down 5 with 2 minutes left on the clock. A few names come to mind of quarterbacks you'd want under center to win you the game, in todays NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson Aaron Rodgers. If we go back in years past Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning whenever it came to beating the Patriots. All those guys have a built in clutch gear that they showed on the big stages. Herbert is a fine quarterback, and a great guy when its come to interviews and how he carries himself off the field. What he lacks is that killer drive and that clutch gear we've seen quarterbacks have that make them better when the games on the line. In college I didn't see that from Herbert. Now you can be a nice guy off the field and still have the drive, Andrew Luck was as nice of a guy the NFL has seen but always played his best football in the last quarter. Herbert could be like Andrew and just not show the killer drive off the field in his personality, but watching his tape in college didn't show that and if i was a GM it for sure would be a cause of concern if i was going to draft him. 

4. Past Oregon QB's:

Quarterbacks that have played for Oregon just haven't translated to the league well. Quarterbacks that have gone to the league from the program are Marcus Mariota, Joey Harrington, and Kellen Clemens. Mariota being the most recent prospect to be drafted from the program 2nd overall to the Tennessee Titans in 2015 and showed flashes of skill and even led his team to the playoffs. Overall though wasn't able to build a consistent career in the league and this past year lost his starting job to Ryan Tannehill who came in and took Mariotas team to the AFC championship. Clemens being the next recent being drafted in 2006 in the 2nd round by the New York Jets. Clemens never able to develop himself as a real starter has spent his career as a backup for multiple teams. Joey Harrington drafted 3rd overall to the Detroit Lions in 2002. A overall disappointing career and only lasted with the Lions till 2005 and was out of the league by 2009. I do believe that Herbert has the talent to be he best prospect to come out of the program even including the names above, but it's hard to ignore the lack of production quarterbacks from Oregon have been able to have in the NFL.

Player Comparisons:

Floor: Ryan Tannehill

Ceiling: Carson Wentz

 

- Destin Adams-

Twitter: @destin_adams14

 

Player ranking
Year Rank
2020 6
NFL 2019 mock draft
Draft Type Round Pick Team
Projected to be undrafted.
SCOUTING REPORT

Pros:

1. Mobility:

You don't truly know the speed Herbert possess, till you actually watch him play. And oh boy is he quick. When he decides to tuck it and run, he's hard to catch. A game where his mobility is put on full display was in Oregons bowl game this past season against Wisconsin. The only touchdowns scored for Oregons offense came off the feet of Herbert. The best part of his mobility to me is he chooses when to use it so well. Herbert being so mobile you'd think he'd tuck it in run more than he does, but he really goes through his options as a passer first and when he sees a whole, and no better option he takes off. In todays game its becomes more and more of a necessity for your quarterback to be mobile, and Herbert will satisfy that need very well. 

2. Pocket Pressence:

Watching Herbert in the pocket is like art. His footwork, watching him go through all the options he has on the field. You can tell Herbert likes to keep his body centered toward where he is going to throw the ball, because you see him center right after the snap. He's best when he gets to stay in the pocket and when he's given time he makes beautiful reads. Nice solid hard throws up the seam for positive gains for the Ducks. A big part of Herberts game is that he is the most comfortable when he's able to keep his body centered and step into his throws he's usually successful and accurate. 

3. Short to Medium Accuracy:

Oregon offense is built on the foundation of the smalls gains for big rewards. Watching Herbert you'll see a lot of throws up the seam, and screen passes to gain first down and sometimes more. Herbert thrived in that role. His short to medium level passes are very accurate and uses his power to hit targets hard and fast in small holes. The throws i was the most impressed with would be when he's able to deliver pretty balls under pressure consistently up the seam for 15 yards and let his receivers do the rest. The game that i feel his strengths were best put on display was against Washington this past season. Herbert ended the day 24 of 38 for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. Herbert had so many nice balls that day, and a good amount while absorbing a hit, or at the very least under duress. He didn't have a huge deep touchdown in this one either, his longest pass on the day was only 36 yards for that matter. Herbert is able to deal damage without the big plays, and in the NFL defenses try to take away those anyway, for that reason i feel like he can have success at the next level.

4. Arm Strength:  

Herbert's arm strength isn't put on display the same way we normally see it in the NFL. Herbert uses his arm strength to increase his accuracy. He doesn't go down field much whether by his own choice, or the Oregon offense. He shows his strength by sending balls with power into small holes. It's beautiful to watch, and it makes his throws look so crisp and NFL ready. It also gives you hope that under the right offense in the NFL he may be able to learn to have a consistent deep ball using the same power. Adding that aspect of his game would only help him, defensive backs having to worry about those type of throws will open up more of the middle of the field where Herbert likes to move the chains.

Cons:

1. Out of Pocket Play:

As a scout, and even a fan when i scout quarterbacks one of the first things i look for is how a quarterback responds when his pocket collapses and he has to roll out. Herbert isn't as comfortable out of the pocket as you'd like. I think a huge reason for this is his need to center his body on throws. When he rolls out he will attempt and stop and go through his normal progressions and at times thats just not possible when you roll out. You have to rush your progressions to find the open target without the defense knowing where the ball is heading, let alone the pass rushers that is licking their lips at the chance of getting the sack. Herbert's decision making out of the pocket is significantly worse than when he is in his comfort zone in the pocket. This is an area that unless Herbert is drafted to one of the few teams who's interior line is already solid he will have to improve. The pocket collapsing is a sad reality for most quarterbacks and its not a trait that becomes easier to learn with time.

2. Jumps the Gun on Check downs:

This con is one that made scouting Herbert at times lackluster. He is very quick to toss down to the running back or slot receiver. Watching him, there are times that he jumps the gun and fires to the check down because either his first option is taken away or he's nervous the pocket might collapse. This is a problem we've seen quarterbacks in the NFL have recently that have become problematic for teams. Another Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota comes to mind as one, another being Jacoby Brissett. When you're too quick to go to the check down you miss out of so many big play opportunities and it at times can kill drives and leave points on the field. Now there is a chance that this con isn't as much a Herbert thing, and more on the Oregon program as as whole. To me personally we just didn't see Herbert go down field anywhere near enough to show me that he is willing to take the risks at times needed to win games. Now Herbert will flourish in the new NFL of pass catching running backs and at giving speedy receivers the ball in great position to do more with it after the catch. The question you have to ask yourself before drafting him, is if defenses take away the backs and the slot from him can he still win you the game? Only time will tell!

3. Killer Drive

Your team is down 5 with 2 minutes left on the clock. A few names come to mind of quarterbacks you'd want under center to win you the game, in todays NFL, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson Aaron Rodgers. If we go back in years past Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning whenever it came to beating the Patriots. All those guys have a built in clutch gear that they showed on the big stages. Herbert is a fine quarterback, and a great guy when its come to interviews and how he carries himself off the field. What he lacks is that killer drive and that clutch gear we've seen quarterbacks have that make them better when the games on the line. In college I didn't see that from Herbert. Now you can be a nice guy off the field and still have the drive, Andrew Luck was as nice of a guy the NFL has seen but always played his best football in the last quarter. Herbert could be like Andrew and just not show the killer drive off the field in his personality, but watching his tape in college didn't show that and if i was a GM it for sure would be a cause of concern if i was going to draft him. 

4. Past Oregon QB's:

Quarterbacks that have played for Oregon just haven't translated to the league well. Quarterbacks that have gone to the league from the program are Marcus Mariota, Joey Harrington, and Kellen Clemens. Mariota being the most recent prospect to be drafted from the program 2nd overall to the Tennessee Titans in 2015 and showed flashes of skill and even led his team to the playoffs. Overall though wasn't able to build a consistent career in the league and this past year lost his starting job to Ryan Tannehill who came in and took Mariotas team to the AFC championship. Clemens being the next recent being drafted in 2006 in the 2nd round by the New York Jets. Clemens never able to develop himself as a real starter has spent his career as a backup for multiple teams. Joey Harrington drafted 3rd overall to the Detroit Lions in 2002. A overall disappointing career and only lasted with the Lions till 2005 and was out of the league by 2009. I do believe that Herbert has the talent to be he best prospect to come out of the program even including the names above, but it's hard to ignore the lack of production quarterbacks from Oregon have been able to have in the NFL.

Player Comparisons:

Floor: Ryan Tannehill

Ceiling: Carson Wentz

 

- Destin Adams-

Twitter: @destin_adams14

 

Floating offer